Trump Sees the Ukraine War Clearly Enough

Trump’s strategy for bringing peace to Europe came into focus during Ukrainian President Zelensky’s recent visit to Washington. Here’s the exchange, with my commentary.

The Exchange

Zelensky: “First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have a nice ocean and don't feel it now. But you will feel it in the future. God bless—”

These words were disrespectful. You wouldn’t speak this way to your boss during a job interview. Zelensky owed Trump at least that sort of basic deference. Ukraine is somewhere between an American client state and an ally. It is under attack, a fifth of its territory is occupied, and it depends on American money, weapons, and supplies. Despite this, while addressing the American press corps at the White House, Zelensky essentially predicted that the United States would feel the ravages of war. That’s unhinged. I don’t want allies who think the invasion of my country is inevitable—I want allies who will help keep us out of trouble.

Perturbed by this junior partner’s posturing, Trump began a dominance display for the ages.

Trump: “You don't know that. You don't know that. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going to feel.”

Zelensky: “I'm not telling you. I am answering these questions.”

Trump: “Because you're in no position to dictate that.”

Boom. Then, Vance piled on:

Vance: “That's exactly what you're doing.”

Trump: "You are in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. We're going to feel very good.”

Zelensky: “You will feel influenced.”

More disrespect from Zelensky, this time aimed directly at Trump. Trump’s enemies have long accused him, without much proof, of being a Russian shill. Magnifying that kind of rhetoric from within the White House was a deliberate and personal dig. Trump wasn’t about to let it slide:

Trump: “We are going to feel very good and very strong.”

Zelensky: “I am telling you. You will feel influenced.”

Trump: “You're, right now, not in a very good position. You've allowed yourself to be in a very bad position—”

Trump Flatters Himself

Here, Trump struck a sour note. Ukraine was invaded and has fought admirably. Trump may fantasize about pre-war gambits that could have prevented the invasion, but holding Ukraine to that standard is ridiculous. Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival. Its citizens are dying, many heroically. Suggesting Ukraine "allowed" itself to be invaded is icky.

I wish Trump had framed it differently: “You live in a very dangerous place with very powerful enemies, and that means you are in a weak position.” That would have been an accurate, confident way to assert leverage. Instead, Trump’s revisionist history makes him sound detached from reality. Pretending that Ukraine blundered its way into occupation insults any listener.

That said, Trump’s realpolitik is correct. Zelensky is resisting territorial concessions. Peace requires massive territorial concessions. Therefore, Zelensky is the biggest obstacle to peace. Trump’s goal is to bend Zelensky to his will or remove him from office. That’s fine—foreign policy is a grown-up game. But Trump also indulges in juvenile antics. Denigrating Zelensky with untruths is a cheap way to boost Trump’s ego.

A Missed Opportunity Amidst the Smackdown

It’s too bad Trump interrupted his dominance display to masturbate aloud because he laid out the strategic reality quite well:

Zelensky: “From the very beginning of the war—”

Trump: “You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”

Zelensky: “I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious, Mr. President. I'm very serious.”

Trump: “You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War III.”

Zelensky: “What are you speaking about?”

Trump: “You're gambling with World War III. And what you're doing is very disrespectful to this country—a country that's backed you far more than many people said it should have.”

Trump Understands Military Reality

On this point, Trump is correct. A sustained conventional war between Russia and Ukraine could easily kill a million people. Ukraine cannot recapture significant territory without American escalation. Any American escalation risks Russian escalation. If the war drags on, there is probably a 1-3% chance of a nuclear exchange in Europe within the next decade. War is a greater risk than peace.

Ten years after Russia annexed Crimea, it’s time for Europe to grow up. Europe has had a deacde to ramp up weapons manufacturing. Urgency is needed. Europe should launch crash programs to arm itself. While this transition happens, Europe should reimburse the United States for the weapons we send to Ukraine. There is no reason the U.S. should devote three times as much of our economy to defense as Germany, when we are protected by two vast oceans and Germany is not. If the Germans won’t pay, they can deal with the Russians themselves.

Three generations of subsidizing German defense is enough.