We'll Soon Know if Trump is Putin's Stooge

Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy, has arrived in Moscow for discussions with Vladimir Putin. While Ukraine has proven a relatively docile client state—its officials signaled openness to a ceasefire after Trump dominated Zelensky in a White House meeting and paused U.S. aid—Russia remains defiant. Putin has balked at the idea of a ceasefire, arguing that it would benefit Ukraine more than Russia. His actions suggest he wants to continue the war to seize more territory. If peace is to prevail, Trump must convince Putin that further warfare is a mistake.

The Russian Influence Allegations

Trump has long been dogged by accusations of Russian influence. During the 2016 election, the Kremlin covertly funded pro-Trump propaganda. Whether Trump solicited this help or whether it swayed many votes remains unclear, but there is no doubt that Putin wanted Trump to win, believing it would serve Russian interests.

Soviet operatives reportedly identified Trump as a potential asset during the Cold War, though no public evidence suggests he ever worked for the KGB. If such evidence existed, the Obama-era CIA would likely have leaked it. Rumors persist that Russia holds compromising material on Trump, but these claims are impossible to verify. All we can do is assess his actions.

Trump’s behavior has consistently shown an affinity for Putin and hostility toward Western Europe’s institutional order. This could simply reflect ideological and personal affinity. However, it has not dispelled the suspicion that Trump is subject to covert Russian influence. Even if Trump’s affinity for Putin is sincere, that’s pretty fucked up.

Dealing With Putin

Putin is a problem to be solved, but assassination is not the answer. If killing him posed no risk of nuclear war, it would be prudent. Assassinating a man who has desecrated the peace of Europe would be a fine precedent, but targeting someone with the capacity to destroy most of the Northern Hemisphere is simply too risky.

If Putin survived an assassination attempt, he would almost certainly escalate the conflict, potentially in catastrophic ways. If he were eliminated, there’s no guarantee his successor would be any better—or that they wouldn’t retaliate just as aggressively. Unlike Hitler, whose death would have likely shortened World War II, Putin commands a nuclear arsenal and has pursued his war with relative restraint. Twenty-one months after invading Poland, Hitler had already turned on the Soviet Union. Three years into the Ukraine war, Putin is still grinding away at his initial goal. Putin is dangerous, but he has pulled quite a few punches during the last twenty years. Trying to kill him would make things worse.

What Does Putin Want?

The central question is whether Putin can be persuaded to halt his advance or if he is determined to conquer all of Ukraine. These are fundamentally different world states, and it is critical to determine which one we live in.

If Putin is willing to stop at the current line of control, then peace negotiations might work. If he insists on total conquest, then Ukraine has no choice but to keep fighting. Much of Europe will continue supporting Kyiv, and in that case, Trump would enjoy bipartisan support for continuing American aid. Ukraine’s offer of a cease fire will force Russia to show its hand.

Trump’s Next Move

Trump has cracked half the eggs needed to make an omelet. He has humbled Zelensky, exposed the futility of Ukrainian irredentism, and pushed Ukraine to the negotiating table. This was the easy part. As a U.S. client state, Ukraine has little leverage in intra-allied negotiations.

Putin is a tougher challenge. Russia is large and resilient enough to keep fighting indefinitely, meaning peace will only come if the costs to Russia of continuing the war outweigh the benefits. Large carrots and brutal sticks are in order. If Russia believes total victory is still on the table, the war will continue. Any illusions of Russian total victory must be extinguished. If Russia cannot be content with its current gains, it cannot be accommodated.

Standing up to Putin would serve Trump domestically. His base values strength, and a firm stance against Putin would project exactly that. Establishment Republicans largely favor aiding Ukraine, and most Democrats share that position. By confronting Putin, Trump could prove once and for all that he is not a Russian asset.

Which Trump Will We Get?

Trump might be a dilettante with a personal grudge against Zelensky. He might be a Russian asset. Or he might be a sharp realist who understands Ukrainian irridentism will only lead to a protracted, unwinnable war. Trump’s actions so far are consistent with all three theories.

I’d say there’s a 40% chance Trump is a dilletante, a 30% chance he is a Russian asset and a 30% chance he is a clever realist. The best time for him to confront Putin was shortly after his clash with Zelensky. The fact that Trump hasn’t done so yet is a bad sign. However, even if Trump is a dilettante, he will seek revenge if he feels slighted. If Putin crosses him or makes him look weak, Trump might lash out. Unless, Trump is a Russian asset. We are about to shoot the rapids and we’ll have much more data in a week.