But why does Trump want Ukraine to accept a peace deal that does not extract a high price on Russia for invading. A "pyrrhic" victory for Russia -- Russia and Ukraine both withdraw to their own territories (As Pyrrhus did at the end of the Pyrrhic War) -- the least that the US and Europe can accept without putting other countries at risk of coercion.
Yes, that would be an enormous reward. 5 Ukrainian provinces chalk full of natural resources and some of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not to mention a population of millions, not exactly a couple burnt-out villages.
Why ignore the obvious?
There seems to be a lot of grasping at straws to rationalize Trump’s moves that are very obviously made to benefit the Kremlin position
These natural resources have failed to make Ukraine rich so far.
In fact natural resources are of such limited use we call it the "natural resources curse".
Wealth comes from the intellect and solid institutions.
Ukraine doesn't have either. Nor does Russia quite frankly. That's why they are worthless Slav shitholes. As it has been, is now, and always shall be.
The revolution in foreign policy is to recognize that involving yourself in shit countries full of shit people leads nowhere. We learned this from the Middle East and we are leaning it in Ukraine.
Having been invaded for the past 11 years and having a Russian puppet president for the previous several has impeded Ukraine’s progress into a European style economy and political system. In fact, Yanukovych ditching the EU at the last moment is exactly what precipitated Euromaidan and the subsequent Russian stealing of crimea.
Ukraine should be all rights be at a level of development like the Czech Republic in the late 90s. And continued in that direction a couple decades, it could be an economic powerhouse, a truly valuable trading and security partner foe the usa. This is pretty standard bipartisan political analysis.
Some people think the US is more powerful going it alone. This is so foolish. We need trading and security partners. Its very basic self preservation
Ukraine has had 30 years to get its act together. People from west Ukraine have had power plenty of times and it makes no difference. It’s a shithole because it has shit genetics and backward legacy. Just like the Middle East is a shithole because of its shit genetics.
Standard bipartisan analysis said we could turn cousin fucking goat herders with shut tier iqs into a democracy. I do real analysis. Slavs are garbage.
It’s always possible to come up with a story about why a seemingly dumb thing is actually smart if you’re willing to project thoughts to the actors and discount what they say they believe. This doesn’t make it impossible that “it’s all an elaborate ruse” is correct, but it’s probably better to view it as an outside chance.
In this case, Trump already has far more leverage over Ukraine than Russia. If he’s bluffing, he should be bluffing Putin. Just telling Ukraine “this war isn’t your fault but we’re done supporting you unless you accept this peace deal” would be just as effective, and without the lying and betrayal.
You write like a 10yo from Missouri on global affairs. The US can’t do without its alliance network , the rest of the world can easily do without the US.
Ukraine can pivot not just to Europe but also China. Trump loses all of Europe for what ?? He gets Greenland ?? What a strategist
"I would never have thought that I would have to say something like that on a TV show, but after Donald Trump's comments last week... it became clear that this government does not care too much about the fate of Europe,"
New German Chancellor elect
You have no clue about anything you write on. US has lost Europe.
I'm not so sure that trump's popularity would tank if Ukraine collapsed. While many Americans want to see Ukraine do well, I don't think they are that passionate about it. We Americans tend to look inward and have an "oh well, par for the course " attitude about all kinds of international tragedies ...even the ones we cause.
And so much public opinion is manufactured these days by the right wing propaganda industry, that is loyal to trump and the wealthy like fox news.
And a lot of Americans are isolationist. They are sick of the world and sick of us taking on the never ending task of trying to make it better.
I think it'd hardly be an issue in a year or two.
But, If things were flipped, and Trump was a Dem and let Ukraine fall, the repubs would never let it die. It might not be the majority opinion, but we'd be hearing about how trump lost Ukraine forever...
I don't know why it's that way, but I'm pretty sure that last part is right.
Partly I think it's personal. Trump hates Zelenskyy. And I do believe he is that petty.
But more than that I think trump does believe that America should be unencumbered by alliances. And that we should only look out for number one. I don't think he cares who controls what. He only cares that he/we can make deals. He doesn't care who we deal with and he sincerely thinks he can get better deals with Putin and Xi.
He may be able to get better deals than his predecessors because US foreign policy is ossified. We are still embargoing Cuba. The establishment talked like the world would end if he talked to the North Korean premier, etc.
The only point Trump is inflexible on is Israel. Not coincidentally, that’s we only issue where a politically potent constituency pins him to his position.
Biden never recovered from Afghanistan because every single step of his presidency was a fucking trainwreck.
Churchill lost after beating Hitler. Bush lost despite winning gulf war 1. Ford lost his election but his approval rating improved throughout his term despite Saigon falling.
People just don’t give a fuck about foreign policy. They care if it’s in the news cycle right around an election and Americans are involved, but otherwise it’s domestic concerns.
So many well written words to find another way of saying “bullying”.
Not a political position. The US government is of course free to select the best course of action for themselves but do it respectfully. The bullying part is honestly unnecessary and distasteful.
Trump did not pause the aid for Ukraine. He stopped it forever. There was nothing what Zelensky did or did not on Feb 28, 2025 that led to Trump’s decision, which was made long before the meeting.
Most Russian oligarchs, FSB and military generals and colonels, and Russian officials hide their families, children, hundreds of billions of assets in NATO countries ($1100-1300 bn in the USA, $800-900 bn in the UK, $1000-1300 bn in the UK). Moscow won't fire at them ever.
Occam’s Razor: Trump has a severe mental illness (narcissistic disorder with sociopathic complications); as one result, he is deeply insecure and afraid to be exposed. Putin may or may not have kompromat on him (he most likely does, enough to end his presidency immediately, but why use it? Keeping it in reserve is working perfectly). Putin knows exactly how to frighten and manipulate such a character: KGB training 101.
As a result of these factors, Trump does exactly what Putin wants and needs to rescue him, possibly, from his Ukraine catastrophe.
With respect, I think this a much more economical explanation.
Of course your analysis have some points … on a VERY short term perspektivet .. og the only objective is to have a signature on a cease fire … but you’re missing a longer term perspective : the first is the complete loss of credibility of US - both foes and friends / allies - foes because they can always bribe a short sightseeing President and allies because you’ll never know if when help is needed the most - Will aggrements be honoured? Second Trump definitely underestimate UKR battle ingenuity and will when the short obstacles are overcome and EU supplies have replaced US the US has lost all leverage and countries will take into account that US could switch off their military equipment when in dire needs. The US has had no extra cost of defence due to low EU expenditures … US military expenses provides defence for US and no other - its the example of a public good which the US has extended to its allies in return for being the designer of international trade and financial system which has provided the opportunity for the US to consume a far greater part of ressources than otherwise through the dollar dominance… this dominance will no longer be tolerated when US no longer provide a fundation for the international system
Ummm, Shohei, your mike drop was referencing a Russian expert who smugly explained why Putin wasn’t going to invade Ukraine 6 weeks before he did. I think I’ll stick with my little league sources who predicted he would and also predicted that he was going to meet stiff resistance.
... which now means nothing. I'm sorry for your loss in ukraine. It was a reckless and stupid US/UK/EU gamble which has backfired in a history changing way.
ukraine is a losing proposition. That's very clear. Given reserves and equipment, the NATO/ukrainian army has about 6 months. It has no more than a year, even with foreign supplies. It has been a horrible tragedy. The losses are maybe 10 to 1 in favor of Russia. Russia doesn't have to negotiate. I think Russia is stalling for time because she is in control at the front. Meanwhile, serious unrest is growing in ukraine. I think you can count on two things - 1) There will be no NATO/EU "peacekeepers" in ukraine and 2) the borders will be significantly west of what we now see on the military maps.
Honestly, if I’m the Russians, I’d shoot every mercenary, drone operator, and bona fide Nazi trapped in “cauldrons”. Every mother fucker in those categories gets a bullet. No exceptions.
I track this war every day on several sites. The kill ratio is heavily in Russia's favor. I am married to a Russian and we know people there. The Russian economy is in better shape than the UK or US economy. Enjoy your neocon shit sandwich, loser.
But why does Trump want Ukraine to accept a peace deal that does not extract a high price on Russia for invading. A "pyrrhic" victory for Russia -- Russia and Ukraine both withdraw to their own territories (As Pyrrhus did at the end of the Pyrrhic War) -- the least that the US and Europe can accept without putting other countries at risk of coercion.
Russia giving up most of its gains is a fantasy. The choice is major territorial concessions or continued slaughter.
Because Russia has been steadily gaining territory and is better able to replace dead soldiers than an enemy with < 1/3 the population.
Russia has already paid a high price. Their reward is some depopulated villages in the donbass.
Yes, that would be an enormous reward. 5 Ukrainian provinces chalk full of natural resources and some of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not to mention a population of millions, not exactly a couple burnt-out villages.
Why ignore the obvious?
There seems to be a lot of grasping at straws to rationalize Trump’s moves that are very obviously made to benefit the Kremlin position
These natural resources have failed to make Ukraine rich so far.
In fact natural resources are of such limited use we call it the "natural resources curse".
Wealth comes from the intellect and solid institutions.
Ukraine doesn't have either. Nor does Russia quite frankly. That's why they are worthless Slav shitholes. As it has been, is now, and always shall be.
The revolution in foreign policy is to recognize that involving yourself in shit countries full of shit people leads nowhere. We learned this from the Middle East and we are leaning it in Ukraine.
Having been invaded for the past 11 years and having a Russian puppet president for the previous several has impeded Ukraine’s progress into a European style economy and political system. In fact, Yanukovych ditching the EU at the last moment is exactly what precipitated Euromaidan and the subsequent Russian stealing of crimea.
Ukraine should be all rights be at a level of development like the Czech Republic in the late 90s. And continued in that direction a couple decades, it could be an economic powerhouse, a truly valuable trading and security partner foe the usa. This is pretty standard bipartisan political analysis.
Some people think the US is more powerful going it alone. This is so foolish. We need trading and security partners. Its very basic self preservation
Ukraine has had 30 years to get its act together. People from west Ukraine have had power plenty of times and it makes no difference. It’s a shithole because it has shit genetics and backward legacy. Just like the Middle East is a shithole because of its shit genetics.
Standard bipartisan analysis said we could turn cousin fucking goat herders with shut tier iqs into a democracy. I do real analysis. Slavs are garbage.
Real analysis. I see.
And Crimea
It’s always possible to come up with a story about why a seemingly dumb thing is actually smart if you’re willing to project thoughts to the actors and discount what they say they believe. This doesn’t make it impossible that “it’s all an elaborate ruse” is correct, but it’s probably better to view it as an outside chance.
In this case, Trump already has far more leverage over Ukraine than Russia. If he’s bluffing, he should be bluffing Putin. Just telling Ukraine “this war isn’t your fault but we’re done supporting you unless you accept this peace deal” would be just as effective, and without the lying and betrayal.
You write like a 10yo from Missouri on global affairs. The US can’t do without its alliance network , the rest of the world can easily do without the US.
Ukraine can pivot not just to Europe but also China. Trump loses all of Europe for what ?? He gets Greenland ?? What a strategist
First you insult me and then you wail about “losing all of Europe” as if it’s at any real risk. Ukraine is on the periphery yo.
"I would never have thought that I would have to say something like that on a TV show, but after Donald Trump's comments last week... it became clear that this government does not care too much about the fate of Europe,"
New German Chancellor elect
You have no clue about anything you write on. US has lost Europe.
I'm not so sure that trump's popularity would tank if Ukraine collapsed. While many Americans want to see Ukraine do well, I don't think they are that passionate about it. We Americans tend to look inward and have an "oh well, par for the course " attitude about all kinds of international tragedies ...even the ones we cause.
And so much public opinion is manufactured these days by the right wing propaganda industry, that is loyal to trump and the wealthy like fox news.
And a lot of Americans are isolationist. They are sick of the world and sick of us taking on the never ending task of trying to make it better.
I think it'd hardly be an issue in a year or two.
But, If things were flipped, and Trump was a Dem and let Ukraine fall, the repubs would never let it die. It might not be the majority opinion, but we'd be hearing about how trump lost Ukraine forever...
I don't know why it's that way, but I'm pretty sure that last part is right.
Ukrainian collapse would certainly be a political risk for Trump. What’s the upside?
Partly I think it's personal. Trump hates Zelenskyy. And I do believe he is that petty.
But more than that I think trump does believe that America should be unencumbered by alliances. And that we should only look out for number one. I don't think he cares who controls what. He only cares that he/we can make deals. He doesn't care who we deal with and he sincerely thinks he can get better deals with Putin and Xi.
He may be able to get better deals than his predecessors because US foreign policy is ossified. We are still embargoing Cuba. The establishment talked like the world would end if he talked to the North Korean premier, etc.
The only point Trump is inflexible on is Israel. Not coincidentally, that’s we only issue where a politically potent constituency pins him to his position.
You are certainly correct it may be personal
Biden never recovered from Afghanistan because every single step of his presidency was a fucking trainwreck.
Churchill lost after beating Hitler. Bush lost despite winning gulf war 1. Ford lost his election but his approval rating improved throughout his term despite Saigon falling.
People just don’t give a fuck about foreign policy. They care if it’s in the news cycle right around an election and Americans are involved, but otherwise it’s domestic concerns.
Biden never recovered from Afghanistan and people don't care about foreign policy. Aren't you contradicting yourself?
Wishful thinking. Making major concessions to the aggressor, after approaching them yourself, is bad negotiating.
Baffled with Bullshit
name one thing that Dumprov has demanded or even hinted at that RuZZia will need to do in a future peace?
So many well written words to find another way of saying “bullying”.
Not a political position. The US government is of course free to select the best course of action for themselves but do it respectfully. The bullying part is honestly unnecessary and distasteful.
Do not lie to yourself.
Trump did not pause the aid for Ukraine. He stopped it forever. There was nothing what Zelensky did or did not on Feb 28, 2025 that led to Trump’s decision, which was made long before the meeting.
Most Russian oligarchs, FSB and military generals and colonels, and Russian officials hide their families, children, hundreds of billions of assets in NATO countries ($1100-1300 bn in the USA, $800-900 bn in the UK, $1000-1300 bn in the UK). Moscow won't fire at them ever.
Confiscate those assets, all of them.
Occam’s Razor: Trump has a severe mental illness (narcissistic disorder with sociopathic complications); as one result, he is deeply insecure and afraid to be exposed. Putin may or may not have kompromat on him (he most likely does, enough to end his presidency immediately, but why use it? Keeping it in reserve is working perfectly). Putin knows exactly how to frighten and manipulate such a character: KGB training 101.
As a result of these factors, Trump does exactly what Putin wants and needs to rescue him, possibly, from his Ukraine catastrophe.
With respect, I think this a much more economical explanation.
Trump is pushing just enough to make things ambiguous. Ukraine is still getting US aid
Of course your analysis have some points … on a VERY short term perspektivet .. og the only objective is to have a signature on a cease fire … but you’re missing a longer term perspective : the first is the complete loss of credibility of US - both foes and friends / allies - foes because they can always bribe a short sightseeing President and allies because you’ll never know if when help is needed the most - Will aggrements be honoured? Second Trump definitely underestimate UKR battle ingenuity and will when the short obstacles are overcome and EU supplies have replaced US the US has lost all leverage and countries will take into account that US could switch off their military equipment when in dire needs. The US has had no extra cost of defence due to low EU expenditures … US military expenses provides defence for US and no other - its the example of a public good which the US has extended to its allies in return for being the designer of international trade and financial system which has provided the opportunity for the US to consume a far greater part of ressources than otherwise through the dollar dominance… this dominance will no longer be tolerated when US no longer provide a fundation for the international system
Maybe post an update!
You are clueless.
A bold assertion, would you care to explain why I am wrong or would you rather berate me like this is some playground game
https://gordonhahn.com/2024/12/10/the-second-great-ukrainian-ruin-revisited/
Your definitive source wrote this right before Putin invaded: https://gordonhahn.com/2021/12/25/putin-is-not-planning-to-invade-the-donbass/
So? It was clearly provoked by the ukraine nazis, the uk, and the cia. That's all you've got? Go back to the minor leagues, kid.
Ummm, Shohei, your mike drop was referencing a Russian expert who smugly explained why Putin wasn’t going to invade Ukraine 6 weeks before he did. I think I’ll stick with my little league sources who predicted he would and also predicted that he was going to meet stiff resistance.
... which now means nothing. I'm sorry for your loss in ukraine. It was a reckless and stupid US/UK/EU gamble which has backfired in a history changing way.
ukraine is a losing proposition. That's very clear. Given reserves and equipment, the NATO/ukrainian army has about 6 months. It has no more than a year, even with foreign supplies. It has been a horrible tragedy. The losses are maybe 10 to 1 in favor of Russia. Russia doesn't have to negotiate. I think Russia is stalling for time because she is in control at the front. Meanwhile, serious unrest is growing in ukraine. I think you can count on two things - 1) There will be no NATO/EU "peacekeepers" in ukraine and 2) the borders will be significantly west of what we now see on the military maps.
Honestly, if I’m the Russians, I’d shoot every mercenary, drone operator, and bona fide Nazi trapped in “cauldrons”. Every mother fucker in those categories gets a bullet. No exceptions.
I track this war every day on several sites. The kill ratio is heavily in Russia's favor. I am married to a Russian and we know people there. The Russian economy is in better shape than the UK or US economy. Enjoy your neocon shit sandwich, loser.
So we know your echo chamber preferences. Thank you.