Steady As She Goes
Good polls for Harris in blue states have offset bad ones in FL. The chances of a landslide for either candidate fall every day we get closer to the election without much poll movement. However, Harris’ odds of victory are fairly steady at 58.4%. I suspect Nate Silver’s bottom line would be similar if he didn’t punish Harris for "economic fundamentals. With the polls this close, that adjustment might account for the 4 point difference in our win probabilities.
HARRIS WON 584007 out of 1 Million times
she got exactly 270 EVs 17499 times
the blue wall holds 492651 times
Blue Wall Cracks 507349 times of which Harris salvages 91356 wins
Harris wins a southern state (GA/AZ/NC/FL/TX): 657924 times
Harris blue wall only: 17445 plus nevada: 38356
Harris wins PA loses GA but wins election 246862 out of 280780 times she carries pa but not ga
State wins with state losses with state wins without state losses without state
AZ 390399 23428 193608 392565
GA 334350 105917 249657 310076
FL 179787 3 404220 415990
MI 562664 73962 21343 342031
MN 579769 272929 4238 143064
NV 525296 79777 58711 336216
NC 392438 60884 191569 355109
PA 549665 35985 34342 380008
TX 140862 9766 443145 406227
WI 532490 66537 51517 349456
NE-2 575701 332524 8306 83469